AFTER THE RAPTURE HOW TO MAKE AFRICA ROAR

  On a chilly and cacophonous June night, as hundreds of thousands of his compatriots celebrated the hosting of a great sporting tournament, a young black South African friend found himself in an argument with two white policemen. Words led to blows. He staggered home shaken and thoroughly cynical about the supposed new national spirit so enthusiastically promoted by the world's media.

  The organisers of the football World Cup can relax: the 2010 fairy tale is intact. This fracas was at the end of the 1995 Rugby World Cup. But the moral of the story endures. Then, the world delighted in “rainbow” South Africa after Nelson Mandela, a year into his presidency, embraced the sport of his apartheid oppressors. His gesture did help to bond Afrikaners to the fledgling nation, but South Africa soon found itself again wrestling with the challenges still hobbling its potential: socio-economic inequalities; 30-40 per cent unemployment; and the tendency of the ruling African National Congress to conflate party and state. In short the joy was ephemeral and the hangover acute.

  Now, once again, South Africa is on a high. There is talk of a turning point for Africa, of the vanquishing of Afro-pessimism and even that the continent's long-derided “lion” economies may finally attract a hard look from investors. At a lunch for fund managers, attended by the ever-ebullient President Jacob Zuma, a Zambian businesswoman all but broke down as she told him of her pride as an African in the tournament. “When we fall we fall together, when we stand together . . . ” she said. The audience burst into applause.

  These have been thrilling weeks. South Africa has been more united than ever, far more so than in 1995 or at the first democratic elections in April 1994. The processions of fans to stadiums have had a flavour of the Mediterranean Passeggiata. There was none of the edginess that usually marks gatherings in one of the world's more violent societies.

  But, inspiring as this World Cup has been, should investors see South Africa as the conduit to the next great frontier? A prominent Asian visitor was very impressed by the country's infrastructure. But what of the leadership, he asked? Will it lead?

  Mr Zuma struck the right tone in his lunch address. Africa should be a new “node of global economic growth” and no longer be seen as a “permanent recipient of aid”. But he now needs to make some brave decisions if South Africa is to help the “lion” economies roar, and the World Cup is not to be an evanescent dream.

  In recent years, South Africa's economy has been utterly outstripped by the “southern” giants of China, India and Brazil. It is not just that the ANC needs to apply the same dedication to basic services that it has to building stadiums. It needs fundamental reform: it needs to confront the party cliques who see government as a route to enrichment; it needs to be more open to business; it needs to rethink the economy.

  With its economy accounting for 27 per cent of sub-Saharan Africa's gross domestic product, South Africa rightly aspires to be the continent's hegemon. Yet when analysts speculate about the hot emerging markets of the future they tend first to mention Nigeria, with its 170m people. It is not just that the commodity-dependent South African economy is one-dimensional. It also lacks Nigeria's entrepreneurial dynamism. Partly this is the fault of apartheid which kept most business in white hands. But the ANC retains an apartheid-era distrust of the private sector.
 
  世界杯留给非洲什么？

  6月份一个寒冷而喧闹的夜晚，在数十万同胞欢庆南非主办一项伟大的体育赛事之际，一名年轻的南非黑人与两名白人警察发生了争执。口角之后是拳脚。他摇摇晃晃、步履蹒跚地走回家，对世界媒体大肆宣扬的所谓的南非新民族精神彻底失去了信心。

足球世界杯(World Cup)的组织者无需紧张：2010年的童话完美无损。上述争吵发生于1995年橄榄球世界杯(Rugby World Cup)即将结束之际。但是这个故事在今天仍有启迪意义。当时，纳尔逊•曼德拉(Nelson Mandela)在就任总统一年后，接过了种族隔离制度压迫者留下的这项赛事，全世界都为“彩虹国度”南非感到高兴。曼德拉的姿态确实有助于羽翼未丰的南非获得南非白人的支持，但南非很快发现，自己又面临一系列仍然束缚着其潜力的挑战：社会与经济的不平等；30%-40%的失业率；执政的非洲人国民大会（African National Congress，简称非国大）将党国混为一谈的倾向。简言之，欢乐是短暂的，纵情后的头痛是严重的。

如今，南非再一次飘飘欲仙了。有人说，南非迎来了转折点，非洲悲观主义(Afro-pessimism)情绪行将终结，甚至还有人说，非洲大陆长期以来遭到嘲笑的“狮子”经济，或许终于吸引到了投资者的仔细打量。在一个基金经理午餐会上（与会者包括永远热情洋溢的南非总统雅各布•祖马(Jacob Zuma)），一名赞比亚女商人在向祖马叙述在世界杯比赛中，身为一名非洲人是多么骄傲时，情绪差点儿失控。她说：“跌倒时我们一起跌倒，当我们一起站起来时……”与会者爆发出了热烈的掌声。

这是激动人心的几周。南非前所未有地团结，远远超过了1995年或者1994年4月份的首次民主大选。走向球场看台的球迷队伍，有一种地中海漫步 (Mediterranean Passeggiata)的味道。你丝毫见不到任何急躁的行为——作为世界上暴力文化较浓厚的社会之一，急躁常常是南非各种集会的标志性特征。

但是尽管这届世界杯如此鼓舞人心，投资者应该视南非为通向下一个亟待开发重要领域的通道吗？南非的基础设施给一位著名的亚洲参观者留下了非常深刻的印象。但领导力如何，他问道？会走在前列吗？

祖马在午餐演讲中给出了正确基调。非洲应称为新的“全球经济增长节点”，不再被视为“永久的援助接受者”。但如果南非想帮助“狮子”经济腾飞，不让世界杯成为渐行渐远的梦想，祖马如今需要作出一些大胆的决策。

近年来，南非经济已经被中国、印度、巴西这些“南部”大国远远地抛在了后面。不仅是非国大需要像修建体育场那样用心地发展基础服务，而且南非还需要实施根本性的改革：它需要与视政府为致富途径的党派做斗争；它需要对商业持更加开放的态度；它需要对经济进行反思。

鉴于南非占到撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济总量的27%，南非无疑渴望成为非洲大陆的霸主。不过，当分析师推测未来热门的新兴市场时，他们首先提及的往往是拥有 1.7亿人口的尼日利亚。这不仅是因为依赖大宗商品的南非经济比较单一；而且还因为南非缺乏尼日利亚的企业家活力。这在一定程度上要归咎于让大部分企业掌握在白人手中的种族隔离制度。但非国大也保留着种族隔离时代对私人部门的不信任态度。