Beijing's Latest Worry: College Grads

You don’t need an advanced degree to see that China’s policy makers are worried about job prospects for college graduates.

你并不需要拥有硕士或博士学位也可以看出，中国决策者为大学毕业生的就业前景感到担心。

In the last week or so top leaders have weighed in on the issue ─ including Communist Party chief Xi Jinping, who met with graduates at a placement center, and Premier Li Keqiang, who chaired a cabinet meeting zeroing in on the issue. The cabinet later announced an action plan and the nation’s media jumped on the bandwagon, giving the issue extensive coverage.

在过去一周左右的时间里，中国高层领导人都在就这一问题发表看法。如中共中央总书记习近平在就业安置中心同毕业生见面，而中国总理李克强则主持召开国务院工作会议，专门研究这一问题。会后宣布了一项行动计划。中国媒体也纷纷跟进，就此问题进行广泛报道。

One reason for all the high anxiety about higher education is the fear of social instability. Even if they don’t have to face an angry electorate anytime soon, the prospect of large numbers of better-educated urban youths facing employment problems is enough to make the new leadership team sit up and listen.

高层对高校毕业生就业问题倍感忧虑的原因之一是担心社会不稳定。即使短期内中国领导人还无需面对愤怒的选民，但大量受过高等教育的城市青年遭遇就业难的这一前景就足以引起新领导班子的高度关注。

“Support from the urban elite is critical, ” said Albert Park, an economist who looks at labor issues and is now the director of the Institute for Emerging Market Studies at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

香港科技大学(Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)新兴市场研究学院主任、研究劳工问题的经济学家朴之水(Albert Park)说，来自城市精英的支持至关重要。

Part of the problem is that the ranks of college students have been growing at a fairly fast pace for some years, adding to the manpower supply. Now that economic growth is slowing, the stresses are painfully obvious.

造成这一问题的部分原因是近些年来大学生的规模一直在以相当快的速度增长，这增加了劳动力供应。现在随着经济增速放缓，大学生就业压力凸显出来。

“The expansion of higher education has created much more real pressure for finding jobs, ” said Mr. Park.

朴之水说，高等教育规模的扩张为找工作带来了更加真实的压力。

Ding Dajian, a professor at Renmin University who also closely follows labor issues, said that years of expanded college enrollment have contributed to the.difficulties.

中国人民大学教授丁大建说，多年来大学扩招是导致毕业生求职难的原因之一。丁大建也在密切关注劳工问题。

“This has been an issue that has been building for more than a decade, ” he said. “ We are now at a very high level [of graduates]. Now that we have slower economic growth, this issue has become very apparent.”

丁大建说，大学生就业难不是一个突发的事情，已经有十多年的积累。连续多年扩招使总供给已达到了很高的水平，现在又逢经济增速放缓，凸显了毕业生就业难的问题。

He said that in the 2002-2009 period the growth in the new enrollment of college students increased by 500, 000 to 800, 000 students per year, though more recently growth has been slowing to around 200, 000 per year.

他说，在2002年至2009年期间，每年大学新生数量同比增加50万至80万人之间，这之后增速放缓，降至每年新增大约20万人。

“Since 2010 we’ve actually seen a decline in the growth of graduate totals.”

他说，自2010年以来我们看到毕业生总量增加的速度在放缓。

So perhaps it is partly a matter of when things are going well, problems get overlooked.

所以或许从一定程度上说问题是，情况好的时候，问题会被忽视。

The government anticipates 6.99 million university graduates nationwide this year and that would be up from about 6.8 million last year, according to the Ministry of Education (though official figures vary considerably ─ if you look at National Bureau of Statistics data, the total is considerably lower at 6.3 million last year after 6.08 million in 2011.)

据教育部的数据显示，政府预计今年全国大学应届毕业生将达699万人，高于去年的约680万人。（但官方数据差异很大──据国家统计局的数据显示，去年应届毕业生为630万人，比教育部提供的数字低很多，2011年则为608万。）

It’s more than a little ironic, though, that college graduates are having more problems finding a job while workers overall are still generally in short supply. The labor market overall is tight as China’s work force is ageing and shrinking.

不过，让人感到非常讽刺的是，一方面大学毕业生找工作变得更难，而同时劳动力仍处于普遍短缺的状态。随着中国的劳动人口开始老龄化并减少，劳动力市场整体形势紧张。

While employment looked somewhat weaker in the preliminary HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index for May, the decline was from relatively high levels. China’s private-sector wages rose 14% in real terms in 2012, the National Bureau of Statistics said. And demand for workers outstripped supply by a record amount in the first quarter of this year, according to government data.

尽管从汇丰(HSBC) 5月采购经理人指数(PMI)的预览值看，就业形势看起来进一步疲弱，但预览指数是从相对来说很高的水平下滑的。国家统计局说，2012年，中国私营部门工资在扣除物价因素后上涨了14%。此外，据政府数据显示，今年第一季度，用工缺口创下了历史新高。

The State Council, China’s cabinet, is trying to make previous measures aimed at helping college graduates start to work. It is letting graduates use training centers for a longer period. It is also lowering costs for start up their own business and offering one-time subsidies for provincial governments to dole out payments “according to the local situation.”

中国国务院正在努力让此前推出的旨在帮助大学毕业生的多项措施开始发挥成效。国务院开始允许毕业生更长时间地使用培训中心，还降低了毕业生创业的成本，并向多个省的政府提供一次性补贴，以便其根据当地情况安排支出。

Beijing has also been tilting tax and other policies to help the service sector which hopefully results in more jobs in an area that the government sees as critical to its own plans for rebalancing the economy.

北京一直在税收等政策方面向服务业倾斜，以助其一臂之力。政府认为服务业对于恢复经济平衡的计划至关重要，希望政策上的倾斜能够帮助服务业创造更多的就业岗位。

But sometimes government efforts have unintended consequences. The Global Times pointed out that some efforts to track employment success have led to prospective graduates feeling compelled to buy fake employment contracts in order to get their diploma in a timely fashion. Apparently, the pressure on universities to meet administrative targets is encouraging them to make the numbers look just a bit better.

不过，政府的努力有时产生意想不到的后果。《环球时报》指出，一些跟踪就业成功率的措施导致即将毕业的学生感觉不得不马上买份假雇佣合同，以便拿到毕业文凭。显然，大学面临实现行政目标的压力，它们希望就业数据好看一点。

The numbers also don’t explain whether graduates have the right background for the job market or whether their employment expectations need to be brought more in line with reality.

就业数据也解释不了毕业生是否拥有适合就业市场情况的教育背景，他们的就业预期是否需要根据实际情况做更多的调整。