美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)上个月在中国时宣布，需要解决美国的赤字，以避免“二次衰退”。这一声明引发人们猜测，美国的主要债权人中国告诫奥巴马要打理好自家的财政状况。
　　U.S. President Barack Obama made news in China last month when he announced the need to tackle the U.S. deficit to avoid a 'double-dip recession.' The statement triggered speculation that America's chief creditor admonished the President to get his fiscal house in order.

　　尽管大多数分析人士过去一年中都在说中国陷入了“美元陷阱”，但奥巴马讲话的时机和地点表明中国已从上一次的严重美元危机中吸取了一些重要教训。最重要的是，他们似乎明白，“美元外交”是让美国政策更有利于保护中国2万亿美元外汇储备价值的有用工具。
　　While most analysts have spent the past year arguing China is caught in a 'dollar trap,' the timing and location of Mr. Obama's statement indicates the Chinese have learned some key lessons from the last great dollar crisis. Most importantly, they appear to understand that 'dollar diplomacy' is a useful tool to make U.S. policies more favorable to protecting the value of China's $2 trillion in reserves.

　　为了理解这一点，有必要对美国上世纪70年代末的主要债权人面临的问题做一个简短的历史回顾。1978年，对美元情况的担忧排到了国际经济议程的首位。随着美元的疲软日渐侵蚀西德和石油输出国组织(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称：欧佩克)等美国贸易伙伴的竞争力，或威胁其美元储备的价值，它们的担忧情绪与日俱增。欧佩克面临着一个特别尖锐的问题，因为美元作为石油结算货币，这意味着石油出口国除了积累美元之外别无选择。比如，在1978年6月，有人估计沙特阿拉伯的海外资产和储备为650亿美元，据说其中有80%为美元资产。
　　To understand this, it's worth a brief historical review of the problem facing major U.S. creditors in the late 1970s. In 1978, concern about the dollar's health reached the top of the international economic agenda. U.S. trading partners, such as West Germany and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), grew particularly worried as the dollar's weakness eroded their competitiveness or jeopardized the value of their dollar-denominated reserves. OPEC faced an especially acute problem, because the dollar served as oil's invoice currency, meaning the oil-exporting nations had no alternative to dollar accumulation. In June 1978, for example, one estimate put Saudi Arabia's foreign assets and reserves at $65 billion -- 80% of which were said to be held in dollars.

　　虽然中国的美元储备规模远远超过了70年代末的沙特阿拉伯，但沙特仍面临着实质上的“美元陷阱”困境：任何将储备从美元转向另一种货币的重大举措都会加速美元的下跌，侵蚀剩余储备的价值。
　　While China's dollar reserves are orders of magnitude larger than those held by Saudi Arabia in the late 1970s, the Saudis still faced the fundamental 'dollar trap' predicament: Any major effort to shift reserves from dollars to another currency would accelerate the dollar's decline and erode the value of the remaining reserves.

　　然而，欧佩克国家没有被动地接受积累不断贬值的美元的命运，它们采取了认真仔细的外交对策，给美国施加压力，最终促使美国实施了更强硬的通货膨胀政策。首先，欧佩克国家公开讨论采用美元以外的货币对石油定价，如国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的特别提款权。欧佩克要求对采用另一种货币进行石油结算的影响进行研究，欧佩克一个下属委员会提出用一篮子货币对石油定价。欧佩克的成员国科威特说，它将接受英镑，而不是美元。