The circumstances that could give rise to such a scenario would not necessarily need to reflect the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy. A few undersubscribed Treasury auctions, a higher-than-expected consumer price index report or a mid-session budget review indicating a larger deficit than forecast could shape creditor expectations regarding the prospects for inflation.
Proponents of the 'dollar trap' view argue no reasonable creditor would undermine its asset values by a starting a dollar sell-off. However, if a creditor believes the U.S. is not serious about containing inflation and expects the dollar's decline to persist, it is perfectly rational for the creditor to sell dollar assets at the best possible price.
The lesson here is that the stability of U.S.-China economic relations is highly contingent on the expectations of other major U.S. creditors: It is no longer solely the province of the two superpowers. In addition, the more the U.S. becomes financially overextended, the more it is at the mercy of seemingly insignificant financial events.
While China can use 'dollar diplomacy' to find a way out of a difficult situation, the U.S. has few viable alternatives to deficit reduction and eventually tightening the money supply. If the U.S. government cannot muster the will to rein in the money supply and the national debt on its own, it faces the prospect of a rival power increasingly constraining U.S. economic policy options or a collapse in global confidence in the dollar. Neither scenario bodes well for the U.S., which is all the more reason for Congress and the administration to get serious about the dollar.
上一页    【已有很多网友发表了看法，点击参与讨论】【对英语不懂，点击提问】【英语论坛】【返回首页】