How have we been doing? In a word, dreadfully. For all the talk, not just the stock but the flow of emissions has been rising. The recession has helped. But we cannot – and, self-evidently, should not – rely on economic armageddon. As the IEA notes, energy-related CO2 emissions have increased from 20.9 gigatonnes (Gt) in 1990 to 28.8 Gt in 2007. The IEA forecasts CO2 emissions, on its “reference scenario”, at 34.5 Gt in 2020 and 40.2 Gt in 2030 – an average rate of growth of 1.5 per cent a year over the period. Crucially, developing and emerging countries “account for all the projected growth in energy- related emissions to 2030”, with 55 per cent of the increase coming from China and 18 per cent from India.
　　我们做得怎样？一句话，糟透了。尽管这方面的讨论不绝于耳，但不仅是存量，连排放流量也在不断上升。虽然本次衰退有所帮助，但我们不能——显然也不应该——依赖于经济浩劫。正如IEA指出的那样，与能源有关的二氧化碳排放量已自1990年的209亿吨上升至2007年的288亿吨。IEA在其“参考情景”中预测，二氧化碳排放量将在2020年达到345亿吨，在2030年达到402亿吨——期间平均每年增长1.5%。至关重要的是，“到2030年前，能源相关排放的预计增量将全部来自”发展中国家和新兴国家，其中55%的增量来自中国，18%来自印度。

　　The case for changing these trends soon is that the costs of curbing large rises in temperature would otherwise become extremely high or, at worst, prohibitive. The IEA argues that if the aim is to limit greenhouse gas concentrations to 450 parts per million, every year of delay in moving towards the required trajectory adds an extra $500bn of costs to the estimated global cost of $10,500bn. These costs result from the extremely long life of the capital assets used in power generation and the even longer life of CO2 in the atmosphere.
　　之所以要尽快改变这些趋势，是因为如果不这么做，抑制气温大幅升高的成本将变得极其高昂，甚至无法承受。IEA指出，如果以把温室气体浓度控制在450ppm以下为目标，那么每推迟一年向所需的轨迹靠拢，就会使全球10.5万亿美元的估计成本再增加5000亿美元。这些成本源于发电所需资本资产的超长寿命，以及甚至更长的大气中二氧化碳的寿命。

　　The alternative scenario is quite different: instead of the 40.2 Gt of energy-related emissions in 2030, we would have just 26.4 Gt. The gap is huge. A briefing paper from the European Climate Foundation shows that the pledges made in advance of Copenhagen would not close it.* Even on the most optimistic view, current offers fall short by about a third of the reductions needed by 2020 for a pathway to a ceiling of 450 parts per million of CO2 equivalent.
　　另一种情形截然不同：2030年，与能源有关的排放量将仅为264亿吨，而非402亿吨——差距非常悬殊。欧洲气候基金会(European Climate Foundation)的一份简报显示，各国在哥本哈根会议前所作的承诺不足以填补这一差距。即使按照最乐观的看法，要把二氧化碳当量浓度控制在450ppm以下，目前各项提议距离2020年所需的减排量还差三分之一左右。

　　Copenhagen then would only be a beginning. It is likely not even to be that, since the US administration is unable to make binding commitments and developing countries are unwilling to do so. Yet Copenhagen seems the end of the beginning. Something close to agreement exists that the world should act. There is, equally, agreement that, despite the rhetoric, little useful has been achieved so far. The time for action is now – if not at Copenhagen, then soon after.
　　因此，哥本哈根将仅仅是个开始。鉴于美国政府不能做出有约束力的承诺，而发展中国家不愿做出此类承诺，它或许连个开始都谈不上。不过，哥本哈根似乎标志着序幕已经拉开。人们已经达成共识：世界应当采取行动。同样达成共识的是，尽管口头表态不绝于耳，但迄今取得的实际进展寥寥。采取行动的时机就是眼下——如果不是在哥本哈根会议上，那就是在会后不久。

上一页  [1] [2] [3] 下一页